Finishing a nail-biting night with the Spurs-Suns game 5...

I just spent hours trying to watch game 5 of the Spurs-Suns series live on Myp2p.eu. What a nightmare, streaming was barely working, if not stopping completely at various points. I was about to give up and go to bed midway through the 4th quarter when it finally started working flawlessly. That's when the Spurs decided to kick Suns' asses.
God it feels good to have underestimated the Spurs again :). Well, I realize I have mostly overestimated the Suns. By far. Of course, part of my betting on the Suns to win the series was to ward off bad luck for the Spurs. I never stop believing in my Spurs. But my betting on the Suns was also a reasonable choice as I thought they still had the same level as last years + Shaq (minus Marion, but still). I was wrong. So were most pundits. Nash is definitely not the best point guard in the league anymore. Barbosa was not so bad, but not consistent enough. Diaw was good but a little too late. Stoudemire was superb at times, but completely held back by Duncan at critical points. Raja Bell is definitely not as good as he was 2 years ago against the Lakers. Hill was injured.
And hopefully (hopefully!), this is finally the end of Shaq! I must admit it was nice to have him try and come back with a strong team and challenge the Spurs again, especially with that kind of outcome. Also, it's obvious he can still play for a year or two. But I know the guy, he'd be able to join the Celtics to win another title. I'm through with him, and hope he retires. Or better: I hope he just continues to play for an aging and increasingly weaker Suns team next year, with no real chances of winning a title, but at least he'd still be around to get beaten when playoffs come. That would be perfect. One always needs an enemy to focus one's hatred on. Even an old veteran.

Whereas for the Spurs, my prediction was that if they were to beat the Suns, they would reach the finals and lost to the Celtics. We'll see. I definitely don't see them beating the Hornets easily. I actually believe the Hornets will be as hard to take on as the Lakers. I still believe in my Spurs, but wouldn't be surprised if they lost the semis to the Hornets. It's 50-50 for me. It's just that it's Paul's year, and it's clearly not the Spurs' year, that's for sure. They never win in even years.

My playoffs predictions: a 17th trophy for the Celts - but am I underestimating the hearts of Texan champs again?

5 teams can win it all this year: the Celts, The Pistons, the Lakers, the Spurs and the Suns (no one really believes in the chances of the Hornets or the Mavericks, for some reason).

While I'll be rooting for the Spurs as ever and hope they can finally win back-two-back championships, I predict a Celtics - Lakers finals match-up, with the Celtics prevailing easily.

Here are the playoffs brackets I predict, with arguments underneath:


1st round:

• Celtics - Hawks : no comment.
• Cavs - Wizs : the Wiz trio is back again, but the mechanic around James is a real juggernaut
• Magic - Raps : Raps won 50% of their games this season : they are much more average than last year. The duo Turkoglu - Howard will be too hard to stop.
• Pistons - 76ers : the 76ers have shown how good they can be this season. In spite of the lack of roster depth, they play good defense and sound basketball. And Iguodola rocks the court. They will surprise the overconfident Pistons twice in the series.
• Lakers - Nuggets : the Nuggets don't play defense so well (despite Camby), their mechanic is far from perfection and Anthony is still playing too much solo. The Lakers are not sooo much better, but they are clearly above and will not drop a single game.
• Rockets - Jazz : too bad Yao is injured. Houston would have won the series with him. 3 days into the playoffs the Jazz already lead 2-0 and are headed to Salt Lake City. Still: I predict Houston will turn it around for 2 games thanks to their defense and Warriors-like passion (Alston, Landry...), before the Jazz muscle their way to the semis.
• Spurs- Suns: of course this is unfair. Either the champions go home very early, or the new-look Suns end up a failure despite an obviously better roster mix than in the past years. Game one of the series was one of the best playoff games ever, and could have gone either way. In spite of the Spurs leading 1-0, I'm betting on the Suns to win that one in 7 tense games. It's not so much because Shaq is they Suns key to the Spurs quandary, because I still believe Shaq is finished, it's more that I believe the Spurs are a notch lower than they used to be. And Shaq + Amare will prevail over Duncan. That said: it's true that Shaq's been in foul trouble very quickly in game 1 and this might repeat in future games, and it's true that the Suns miss a slasher/killer like Ginobili to make a difference in the final minutes. It's also true that I already thought the Spurs were a notch lower last year but they finally won the championship. However: it's an even year (the Spurs never win in even years), and I think the Suns have such horsepower offensively that they will take a big lead during most games, not winning each one that's granted, but dominating the series overall. Crossing fingers I'm wrong and I'm once again underestimating the Spurs, who might fall to the Hornets in the semis instead, lol! In any case, beyond the fact that Duncan is my favorite player and Shaq my least favorite player, this is one of the most interesting series of the decade. Explanation by numbers:
• Shaq and Duncan have won all but 1 title in the last 9 years
• either Shaq or Duncan reached the finals in each of the last 9 years
• each one has 4 rings
  
• Shaq and Duncan met 5 times in the playoffs, Shaq winning 3 times, Duncan 2. It would be logical to have Tim even this series to 3-3, even though I'm not predicting that.
• There never was a 7th game between the two. I'm predicting a 7th game this time, but this might end up a 6 game-series. It's extremely likely there will be a tie at 2-2 though.
• Hornets - Mavs : most pundits predict a Mavs victory. Having seen the Hornets many times this season, I believe they are a much better team, and they don't cave in under pressure contrary to what's expected of them in the playoffs. The Mavs remain a great team though, and I don't expect Kidd and Nowitzki to shut up and die so easily. Hence a tight series leading to a seventh game victory by the Hornets.

Semis:

• Celtics - Cavs : James will trigger the rebellion against the Celtics twice, but the Celts'' stifling defense will kill the series quickly and painlessly I think.
• Magic - Pistons : the Magic are a good team, but they lack experience against a very harsh Pistons team. The Pistons will crush them.
  
• Lakers - Jazz : the Jazz are very solid, and almost undefeated at home. That said, they don't play as constantly well as the Lakers. It will be a 2-2 tie before the Lakers steal the series 4-2.
• Suns - Hornets : again, the Hornets are excellent, and they will not cave in to an unconstant Suns team. I remember a Hornets - Suns game this season that saw a brilliant Hornets team steal the game with a Peja basket at the end. But the Suns have more talent over all, Chandler will be put in foul trouble quickly by Shaq and Amare, and they will be trailing in most games, before coming back and winning some of them, but losing the series overall.

Conference finals:

• Celts - Pistons : at the beginning of the season I thought the Pistons would prevail in a tight series, but the Celtics have proved to be smarter and better on the defensive end over the season. The Celts will lead 3-1 before winning 4-2 without too much duress. Some say Prince is the best defender in the league on Pierce, and that only Wallace can rival Garnett's fade away jumper, but the Pistons are not constant enough, and will lose 4-2 in the conference finals for the 3rd year in a row.
• Lakers - Suns : the reason why I think the Lakers will prevail despite missing Bynum? Shaq isn't such a difference factor anymore. He's been good enough an acquisition to help beat the Spurs, but the Lakers are more constant. The series will be tough, but as most pundits I see the Lakers prevailing. That said, I've already noted that either Shaq or Duncan played in the finals for the last 9 years: could this be the end of this streak? Apparently so. If the Spurs were to beat the Suns in the first round though (as I strongly hope), I think the Spurs would beat both the Hornets and Lakers to reach the finals.
  

Finals:

• Celtics - Lakers : a lot of experts see the Lakers winning it all because of Kobe. Also, PhilJax shouldn't be forgotten as key reason for success. However, I keep seeing the Celts as a better, stronger team, and I picture the Lakers reaching the finals exhausted and injured. I am taking a shot here, because not many people would think the Celtics are so superior. Note that if they were to meet the Spurs instead, I would still see the Celtics win the championship. Damn Celtics. Well, at least better them than Shaq's Suns.